What We're Watching This Weekend | October 9–11

Good afternoon horsemen and horsewomen,

This is our first newsletter on the new beehiiv platform, and hopefully it makes these updates easier to skim or dig into, depending on how much you want to read.

We've got a good lineup of horses to follow this weekend, so I thought I'd put together a quick viewing guide with the races, post times, and why we're watching.

These are runners by the sires of our six yearlings, along with any important siblings whose performances could help strengthen our horses' pedigrees.

I've also included a quick recap of last week's results and some pretty interesting numbers on Golden Pal, who continues to lead the first-crop sire standings. The more I dig into those numbers, the more encouraged I am about our decision to buy two of his yearlings at Keeneland.

2:04 PM — Keeneland Race 3
#8 Smoke (Volatile) — 5/2
2YO turf allowance, 1 1/16 miles. A Volatile filly stepping into allowance company. One of our more interesting runners today.

2:49 PM — Belmont Race 4
#3 Numerology (Golden Pal) — 8/1
2YO turf maiden, 1 mile. Another chance for Golden Pal to add an individual winner, with a filly trying a route.

3:08 PM — Keeneland Race 5
#4 Castle Pines (Jack Christopher) — 6/1
2YO turf maiden, 1 mile. We'll be keeping a close eye on Jack Christopher's first crop as well.

3:57 PM — Belmont Race 6
#10 Jordan the Caddy (Charlatan) — 5/1
2YO turf maiden, 6½ furlongs. Another young Charlatan runner worth following.

4:12 PM — Keeneland Race 7
#12 April Fools (Charlatan) — 10/1
2YO turf maiden, 1 mile. Another opportunity to see how Charlatan's younger crop is developing.

4:12 PM — Keeneland Race 7

#2 Correlated Risk (Golden Pal) — 8/1

#3 Just Peachy (Golden Pal) — 7/2

2YO filly turf maiden, 1 mile. This is probably our most interesting race of the weekend, with two Golden Pal fillies competing against each other. Correlated Risk runs for Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables, while Just Peachy is one of the shorter prices in the field. Another winner would strengthen Golden Pal's already impressive first-crop statistics.

5:48 PM — Keeneland Race 10

#6 Enchantingmistress (Charlatan) — 10/1

#11 Kaykay (Charlatan) — 5/2

3YO filly dirt maiden, 6 furlongs. Two Charlatan daughters looking to break their maidens. Kaykay comes from Bob Baffert's barn, while Enchantingmistress is trained by Brad Cox.

5:16 PM — Keeneland Race 9

#6 Emilio (Charlatan) — 5/1

#9 Leading Off (Volatile) — 20/1

3YO dirt maiden, 6 furlongs. Two more runners by sires represented in our stable. Emilio is trained by Brad Cox and owned by Resolute Racing and Stonestreet Stables.

All post times are Eastern. Entries and morning-line odds are subject to scratches and changes.

It was another strong week for Golden Pal's first crop, with several meaningful stakes performances and another winner added to his growing list.

Repo Man — 1st, G3 Zuma Beach Stakes (October 4)
Watch the replay and read the story here

Golden Pal's first graded stakes winner! Repo Man is now undefeated in two starts after winning at a mile on the Santa Anita turf. He's one of the more interesting potential Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf contenders.

Seneca Park — 2nd, G2 Jessamine Stakes (October 2)

Another strong performance from Golden Pal's leading earner. She led most of the way before getting caught late at 1 1/16 miles over good turf at Keeneland. More on why I still like her chances at a mile in the Breeders' Cup below.

Extravaganzoo — 1st, $175K Joseph A. Gimma Stakes (October 2)

Another stakes winner for Golden Pal, coming from last to first in a 6½-furlong turf sprint at Belmont.

More Champagne — 3rd, G3 Matron Stakes (October 3)

Earned her first graded black type with a third-place finish in the $200,000 Matron on turf.

Ocala Gold — 1st, Delaware Park (October 7)

Another individual Golden Pal winner, this time at a mile on turf in maiden-claiming company. Thanks to Anthony Morgan for bringing this one to my attention.

An encouraging week for the stallion and for those of us heading into next spring with two of his yearlings!

One of the things we're following almost as closely as our own yearlings is what their older siblings are doing on the racetrack. A big performance from a sibling can improve a horse's pedigree page and potentially make that horse more attractive to buyers next spring.

Jet E Z — Half-brother to our Golden Pal filly (Hip 2120)

This is one I'm particularly excited to follow. Jet E Z, by Essential Quality and out of Back Up the Brinks, sold for $35,000 as a yearling before bringing $550,000 at OBS earlier this year.

He's getting closer to making his debut. His latest workout on October 7 at San Luis Rey was four furlongs in 49.20 seconds, the fastest of five horses working that distance that day.

We're still waiting for his first race. If he turns out to be a talented runner, that could be a very nice development for our Golden Pal filly's pedigree heading into the spring.

Ivy Girl — Half-sister to our Volatile colt (Hip 1352)

Ivy Girl has already won two stakes races this year, the Main Line Stakes at Parx and the Weber City Miss at Laurel.

Both horses are out of Critikal Reason. Having a multiple stakes-winning sibling is an encouraging part of our colt's pedigree, and we'll continue following Ivy Girl for any additional accomplishments.

We'll keep everyone updated when these siblings work, enter races, or produce meaningful results.

Golden Pal continues to lead North America's first-crop sire standings, and the more I study his numbers, the more encouraging they become for our group.

Going into this weekend, his first crop has earned $2,776,795, putting him more than $1.1 million ahead of second-place Life Is Good.

And while the earnings lead is impressive, there's an even more interesting story when we dig into how he's getting those results.

Here's where the leading first-crop sires currently stand:

One thing that jumps out at me is just how many Golden Pal two-year-olds have already made it to the racetrack.

He leads the first-crop class with 74 runners and 27 individual winners. That's approximately 45% of his 165 named foals already racing, with 36.5% of those runners having won.

Having more runners certainly creates more opportunities to earn money. What's particularly impressive is that Golden Pal is maintaining strong averages despite that larger sample size. His offspring are averaging $37,524 in earnings per runner, the highest among the top eight sires in the standings.

And there's quality to go along with the quantity. Golden Pal already has three stakes winners and eight individual black-type horses, including Seneca Park, the highest-earning individual horse among the leading first-crop sires.

Think about Golden Pal himself. He raced four times as a two-year-old, winning twice and finishing second twice, including his victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. That kind of early development, coupled with the ability to handle racing at the highest level, is a big part of what made him special.

Now we're seeing those same early-running characteristics across a large number of his offspring.

This is exactly what we were looking for at Keeneland. Our model depends on finding yearlings that can develop quickly, handle early training, and demonstrate enough ability to create value before or during their two-year-old season.

We liked what we were seeing from Golden Pal's first crop in September, and the numbers have only gotten stronger since we bought our horses.

We walked away with two Golden Pal yearlings for a reason. It's encouraging to see the characteristics we invested in showing up so clearly on the racetrack.

That's plenty to keep us entertained this weekend. I'll continue following the results and any meaningful developments involving our horses' families.

We'll have more to share next week, including an early look at how the Breeders' Cup could impact the first-crop sire standings as we get closer to October 30.

Hope everyone enjoys the racing this weekend!

George